Well, hey howdy tropics. A tropical wave due west of Jamaica has spun up some impressive  convection over the Cayman Islands. This wave and sidekick convection is galumphing west, with a pinch of northwest, at 10-12 knots. Deep layer shear winds at 20-30 kts are not conducive for intensification. Sea surface temperatures are probably the major suspect supporting the convection; storms can really get happy over the deep warm waters of that part of the Caribbean.

This feature will continue to track northwest over the Yucatan and into the western GoMex during the next 72 hours. Water temps and shear there will not be conducive for development. The only model that poo-poos this scenario is the Canadian global model that spins this wave into at least a tropical storm and drives it to the Florida Panhandle by Friday of next week. Naughty, naughty, bad model! Stranger things have happened in the GoMex but I think this is an outlier solution that at worst may make some TV guys all a-twitter over the weekend; just too much shear for this feature to fleet up to interesting status.

Closer to home, hot and humid with scattered afternoon thunderstorms this weekend. A cool front on Sunday will trigger stronger storms, with some isolated severe cells,  Sunday after 3 PM. The weather dudes at the Storm Prediction Saloon in sunny Norman Oklahoma have placed the Upstate and Midlands under a slight threat of severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. Expect 40-60 mph tree McKnocker winds and large hail. Lightning? But of course! Flying monkeys? Doubtful.