Good Morning, 

Well, it’s the start of the second inning of the 2009 North Atlantic Hurricane season and the Hurricanes haven’t come to bat yet. There are just four weak waves in this morning’s infrared satellite image of the North Atlantic (courtesy of the Naval Research Laboratory in Monterey CA; home of the Fighting Calamari…):  A wave forming on the coast of Africa, a mid-Atlantic wave, a eastern Caribbean wave and a wave over the Yucatan peninsula. All these features, embedded in the easterly Trade winds, are tracking west at a leisurely 10-15 knots and exhibit just some ho-hum convection. An impressive belt of30-40 knot upper level shear extends north of the Equator from Africa to the western Caribbean which should keep these waves from getting too intensification happy. All the numerical models are remarkably quiet in the Tropics, even the doom-meister Canadian global model is mouse quiet. Tropical storm formation (a.k.a. cyclogenesis for weather nerds) is not expected this weekend.

Mark Malsick

Severe Weather Liaison

South Carolina Department of Natural Resources

State Climate Office

1000 Assembly Street Columbia, SC 29202

 803-734-0039

MalsickM@dnr.sc.gov